Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles · Tight endTE1

Over 16 games last season Dallas Goedert averaged 4.0 receptions and 39 yards on 85% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.8

1.2 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

29%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.8 projected
26 wk2	TEN	25%	5.9%	2	1	4	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	WAS	95%	22.7%	5	4	77	0	0	2	—
25 wk19	SF	92%	20.6%	7	4	33	1	1	2	—
25 wk17	BUF	80%	27.3%	6	3	8	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	WAS	87%	10.3%	3	3	32	0	0	1	—
25 wk15	LV	74%	38.9%	7	6	70	0	0	2	—
25 wk14	LAC	93%	26.3%	10	8	78	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	CHI	89%	13.3%	4	2	27	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	DAL	92%	5.6%	2	2	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	DET	90%	18.5%	5	2	24	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	13 of 18	72%
5+ receptions	4 of 18	22%
7+ receptions	3 of 18	17%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 18	22%
75+ receiving yards	3 of 18	17%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 18	6%
Scored a touchdown	10 of 18	56%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	2.5	40.5	3.5	2	60%	14.3%
2025	16	4.0	39.0	5.6	13	85%	20.7%
2024	14	4.2	50.8	5.1	3	72%	20.6%
2023	15	4.2	40.9	5.9	4	84%	19.4%
2022	15	4.7	56.2	5.8	4	91%	20.5%
2021	16	3.9	57.6	5.5	4	79%	21.1%
2020	11	4.2	47.6	5.9	3	79%	16.8%
2019	16	4.1	42.5	5.9	5	72%	16.5%
2018	18	1.9	19.7	2.7	5	47%	7.5%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Dallas Goedert sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4