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If Dallas Goedert is out, who gets his targets?

The Philadelphia Eagles room absorbs +1.77 receptions, and Zach Ertz takes the largest single share at +0.71. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Dallas Goedert sitsZach Ertz+0.7TE 0% snapsJohnny Mundt+0.7TE 50% snapsDeVonta Smith+0.1WR 92% snapsDontayvion Wicks+0.1WR 76% snapsMakai Lemon+0.1WR 64% snapsMarquise Brown+0.1WR 22% snapsDarius Cooper+0.1WR 28% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
DeVonta Smith WR · 92% snaps5.205.27+0.07
Dallas Goedert TE · 60% snaps2.80—OUT
Dontayvion Wicks WR · 76% snaps2.802.87+0.07
Makai Lemon WR · 64% snaps2.502.57+0.07
Zach Ertz TE · 0% snaps2.403.11+0.71
Saquon Barkley RB · 44% snaps1.401.40+0.00
Will Shipley RB · 34% snaps1.401.40+0.00
Marquise Brown WR · 22% snaps1.201.27+0.07
Tank Bigsby RB · 22% snaps1.101.10+0.00
Darius Cooper WR · 28% snaps1.101.17+0.07
Johnny Mundt TE · 50% snaps1.001.71+0.71

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Dallas Goedert’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4