Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers · Running backRB1

Over 19 games last season Christian McCaffrey averaged 5.9 receptions and 54 yards on 82% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.7

1.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

12.4

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

48%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.7 projected
26 wk3	ARI	83%	19.2%	5	4	41	15	75	1	5.0 -1.0
26 wk2	MIA	52%	19.0%	4	4	43	10	23	2	—
26 wk1	LA	55%	23.5%	8	5	20	10	68	0	—
25 wk20	SEA	52%	22.2%	6	5	39	11	35	0	—
25 wk19	PHI	88%	26.7%	8	6	66	15	48	2	—
25 wk18	SEA	86%	25.9%	7	6	34	8	23	0	—
25 wk17	CHI	85%	18.2%	6	4	41	23	140	1	—
25 wk16	IND	80%	24.2%	8	6	29	21	117	2	—
25 wk15	TEN	84%	3.6%	1	1	14	22	73	1	—
25 wk13	CLE	79%	17.4%	4	4	21	20	53	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	20 of 21	95%
5+ receptions	16 of 21	76%
7+ receptions	7 of 21	33%
50+ receiving yards	11 of 21	52%
75+ receiving yards	3 of 21	14%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
Scored a touchdown	14 of 21	67%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	34.7	5.7	11.7	55.3	3	63%	20.6%
2025	19	5.9	54.2	7.5	17.7	67.6	19	82%	23.5%
2024	4	3.8	36.5	4.8	12.5	50.5	0	72%	17.9%
2023	19	4.5	37.7	5.7	17.4	90.9	26	84%	19.5%
2022	20	4.8	40.1	6.1	14.2	68.8	16	75%	21.7%
2021	7	5.3	49.0	5.9	14.1	63.1	2	61%	18.8%
2020	3	5.7	49.7	6.3	19.7	75.0	6	77%	15.7%
2019	16	7.2	62.8	8.9	17.9	86.7	19	93%	23.4%
2018	16	6.7	54.2	7.8	13.7	68.6	13	92%	22.7%
2017	17	5.1	44.2	7.1	7.2	26.5	8	71%	22.6%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Christian McCaffrey sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the SF room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4