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If Christian McCaffrey is out, who gets his targets?
The San Francisco 49ers room absorbs +0.69 receptions, and Kaelon Black takes the largest single share at +0.57. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB · 63% snaps | 4.70 | — | OUT |
| George Kittle TE · 60% snaps | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.04 |
| Mike Evans WR · 54% snaps | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 59% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Watkins WR · 28% snaps | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Demarcus Robinson WR · 47% snaps | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Jake Tonges TE · 12% snaps | 1.40 | 1.44 | +0.04 |
| Luke Farrell TE · 53% snaps | 0.80 | 0.84 | +0.04 |
| KhaDarel Hodge WR · 32% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling WR · 32% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Cowing WR · 28% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| Kaelon Black RB · 30% snaps | 0.60 | 1.17 | +0.57 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Christian McCaffrey’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection