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San Francisco 49ers
This is a committee. Christian McCaffrey holds 20.6% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 21 receptions and 248 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans WR1 | 54% | 19.3% | 3.7 | 44 | who benefits |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2 | 59% | 13.2% | 3.6 | 34 | who benefits |
| Demarcus Robinson WR3 | 47% | 11.6% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Jordan Watkins WR depth | 28% | 7.7% | 1.9 | 33 | — |
| Jacob Cowing WR depth | 28% | 2.6% | 0.6 | 13 | — |
| KhaDarel Hodge WR depth | 32% | 1.6% | 0.7 | 11 | — |
| De'Zhaun Stribling WR depth | 32% | 0.0% | 0.0 | — | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle TE1 | 60% | 20.2% | 4.1 | 48 | who benefits |
| Jake Tonges TE depth | 12% | 8.6% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Luke Farrell TE2 | 53% | 3.2% | 0.8 | 15 | who benefits |
| Brayden Willis TE3 | 14% | 0.4% | 0.1 | 0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB1 | 63% | 20.6% | 4.7 | 48 | who benefits |
| Kaelon Black RB2 | 30% | 2.3% | 0.6 | 3 | — |
| Jordan James RB3 | 15% | 1.9% | 0.5 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 25 carries and 108 rushing yards, with Christian McCaffrey taking 49% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB | 12.4 | 50 | 4.07 | 48% |
| Kaelon Black RB | 8.6 | 37 | 4.30 | 14% |
| Jordan James RB | 4.5 | 21 | 4.61 | — |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.