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San Francisco 49ers

This is a committee. Christian McCaffrey holds 20.6% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 21 receptions and 248 receiving yards in week 4.

Who owns the targets

Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.

21%20%19%13%12%28%Christian McCaffreyGeorge KittleMike EvansDeebo Samuel Sr.Demarcus RobinsonEveryone else

Receivers

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Mike Evans WR154%19.3%3.744who benefits
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR259%13.2%3.634who benefits
Demarcus Robinson WR347%11.6%0.0——
Jordan Watkins WR depth28%7.7%1.933—
Jacob Cowing WR depth28%2.6%0.613—
KhaDarel Hodge WR depth32%1.6%0.711—
De'Zhaun Stribling WR depth32%0.0%0.0——

Tight ends

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
George Kittle TE160%20.2%4.148who benefits
Jake Tonges TE depth12%8.6%0.0——
Luke Farrell TE253%3.2%0.815who benefits
Brayden Willis TE314%0.4%0.10—

Backs

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Christian McCaffrey RB163%20.6%4.748who benefits
Kaelon Black RB230%2.3%0.63—
Jordan James RB315%1.9%0.5-1—

The ground game

Projected for 25 carries and 108 rushing yards, with Christian McCaffrey taking 49% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.

PlayerCarriesRush ydsYds/carryAnytime TD
Christian McCaffrey RB12.4504.0748%
Kaelon Black RB8.6374.3014%
Jordan James RB4.5214.61—
1294Christian McCaffreyKaelon BlackJordan James

Whose role has changed since last season

Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.

San Francisco 49ers snap share changeKhaDarel Hodge+19.313→32%Jordan Watkins+17.810→28%Luke Farrell+16.936→53%Brayden Willis+11.73→14%Mike Evans-11.666→54%Deebo Samuel Sr.-12.972→59%George Kittle-16.676→60%Christian McCaffrey-18.482→63%Jake Tonges-26.138→12%points of snap share

Ranked by trailing target share, tie-broken on snap share · concentration measured as a Herfindahl index over the tracked room · projections as-of-week with no lookahead