Deebo Samuel Sr.

San Francisco 49ers · Wide receiverWR2

Over 16 games last season Deebo Samuel Sr. averaged 4.5 receptions and 45 yards on 72% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.6

0.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

31%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.6 projected
26 wk3	ARI	76%	0.0%	0	0	80	2	14	1	4.1 -4.1
26 wk2	MIA	60%	19.0%	4	3	31	1	4	0	—
26 wk1	LA	42%	20.6%	7	6	48	1	12	1	—
25 wk18	PHI	71%	26.3%	5	2	20	2	1	0	—
25 wk17	DAL	82%	19.0%	4	2	68	2	25	0	—
25 wk16	PHI	81%	20.0%	4	3	35	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	NYG	61%	31.2%	5	3	43	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	MIN	52%	30.0%	6	4	27	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DEN	70%	15.6%	7	5	64	2	-3	0	—
25 wk11	MIA	75%	27.6%	8	7	74	1	3	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	15 of 18	83%
5+ receptions	8 of 18	44%
7+ receptions	4 of 18	22%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 18	33%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 18	11%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 18	39%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.0	53.0	3.7	1.3	10.0	2	59%	13.2%
2025	16	4.5	45.4	6.2	1.1	4.7	6	72%	25.4%
2024	15	3.4	44.7	5.4	2.8	9.1	4	73%	18.8%
2023	18	4.1	57.7	6.2	2.4	13.3	12	71%	20.8%
2022	16	4.3	52.7	7.2	3.4	16.6	6	78%	25.7%
2021	19	4.6	82.1	7.1	4.5	26.4	16	79%	25.1%
2020	7	4.7	55.9	6.3	1.1	3.7	1	64%	18.6%
2019	18	3.7	51.6	5.5	1.1	14.5	6	74%	20.2%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Deebo Samuel Sr. sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the SF room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4