Mike Evans

San Francisco 49ers · Wide receiverWR1

Over 8 games last season Mike Evans averaged 3.8 receptions and 46 yards on 66% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.7

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

32%

third-down role (+0.05)

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.7 projected
26 wk3	ARI	33%	23.1%	6	3	34	1	3.6 -0.6
26 wk2	MIA	54%	14.3%	3	3	54	0	—
26 wk1	LA	75%	20.6%	7	6	49	1	—
25 wk18	CAR	75%	9.1%	2	2	34	0	—
25 wk17	MIA	75%	15.9%	7	3	31	1	—
25 wk16	CAR	66%	36.0%	9	5	31	1	—
25 wk15	ATL	55%	37.5%	12	6	132	0	—
25 wk7	DET	20%	8.0%	4	0	0	0	—
25 wk3	NYJ	72%	31.0%	9	4	33	1	—
25 wk2	HOU	79%	30.6%	11	5	56	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 10	80%
5+ receptions	5 of 10	50%
7+ receptions	0 of 10	0%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 10	40%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 10	10%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 10	10%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 10	40%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.0	45.7	5.3	2	54%	19.3%
2025	8	3.8	46.0	7.8	3	66%	24.3%
2024	15	5.4	73.1	7.8	12	72%	26.1%
2023	19	4.7	76.3	8.2	14	79%	25.2%
2022	16	5.2	74.9	8.6	6	85%	19.6%
2021	18	5.1	70.6	7.8	16	83%	18.1%
2020	20	4.0	60.5	6.5	15	81%	17.4%
2019	13	5.2	89.0	9.1	8	85%	24.1%
2018	16	5.4	95.2	8.6	8	84%	22.8%
2017	15	4.7	66.7	9.1	5	87%	24.3%
2016	16	6.0	82.6	10.8	12	83%	30.4%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Mike Evans sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the SF room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4