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If Mike Evans is out, who gets his targets?
The San Francisco 49ers room absorbs +3.26 receptions, and Jordan Watkins takes the largest single share at +0.70. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB · 63% snaps | 4.70 | 4.83 | +0.13 |
| George Kittle TE · 60% snaps | 4.10 | 4.26 | +0.16 |
| Mike Evans WR · 54% snaps | 3.70 | — | OUT |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 59% snaps | 3.60 | 4.17 | +0.57 |
| Jordan Watkins WR · 28% snaps | 1.80 | 2.50 | +0.70 |
| Demarcus Robinson WR · 47% snaps | 1.40 | 2.10 | +0.70 |
| Jake Tonges TE · 12% snaps | 1.40 | 1.55 | +0.15 |
| Luke Farrell TE · 53% snaps | 0.80 | 0.95 | +0.15 |
| KhaDarel Hodge WR · 32% snaps | 0.70 | 0.98 | +0.28 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling WR · 32% snaps | 0.60 | 0.89 | +0.29 |
| Kaelon Black RB · 30% snaps | 0.60 | 0.73 | +0.13 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Mike Evans’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection