George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers · Tight endTE1

Over 12 games last season George Kittle averaged 4.8 receptions and 53 yards on 76% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.1

0.8 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

35%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.1 projected
26 wk3	ARI	85%	26.9%	7	6	82	2	3.9 +2.1
26 wk2	MIA	48%	19.0%	4	4	80	1	—
26 wk1	LA	46%	14.7%	5	2	12	0	—
25 wk19	PHI	22%	6.7%	2	1	6	0	—
25 wk18	SEA	95%	25.9%	7	5	29	0	—
25 wk16	IND	62%	24.2%	8	7	115	1	—
25 wk15	TEN	96%	32.1%	9	8	88	1	—
25 wk13	CLE	87%	21.7%	5	4	67	0	—
25 wk12	CAR	91%	31.2%	10	6	78	0	—
25 wk11	ARI	87%	24.0%	6	6	67	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 14	79%
5+ receptions	6 of 14	43%
7+ receptions	3 of 14	21%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 14	50%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 14	36%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 14	7%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 14	50%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.0	58.0	5.3	3	60%	20.2%
2025	12	4.8	52.8	5.9	7	76%	20.2%
2024	15	5.2	73.7	6.3	8	87%	20.7%
2023	19	3.8	59.6	5.4	7	90%	18.5%
2022	18	3.9	51.6	5.4	11	90%	19.4%
2021	17	4.6	59.9	6.4	7	93%	22.2%
2020	8	6.0	79.2	7.9	2	83%	24.2%
2019	17	5.5	66.1	7.1	5	90%	26.9%
2018	16	5.5	86.1	8.5	5	88%	26.8%
2017	15	2.9	34.3	4.2	2	58%	10.8%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If George Kittle sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the SF room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4