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KH

KhaDarel Hodge

San Francisco 49ers · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 11 games last season KhaDarel Hodge averaged 0.3 receptions and 3 yards on 13% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.7
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
11
Anytime TD
5%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

57%027%111%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.7 projected
26 wk3ARI56%0.0%00000.6 -0.6
26 wk2MIA38%4.8%11180—
26 wk1LA2%0.0%0000—
25 wk15TB—0.0%0000—
25 wk12NO9%0.0%0000—
25 wk11CAR9%3.4%1000—
25 wk10IND3%0.0%0000—
25 wk9NE2%0.0%0000—
25 wk8MIA66%26.7%83310—
25 wk7SF6%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 138%
5+ receptions0 of 130%
7+ receptions0 of 130%
50+ receiving yards0 of 130%
75+ receiving yards0 of 130%
100+ receiving yards0 of 130%
Scored a touchdown0 of 130%

Career by season

KhaDarel Hodge: snap share and target share by season020406080100201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.36.00.3032%1.6%
2025110.32.80.9013%3.0%
2024160.48.20.8123%2.2%
2023170.813.61.4032%4.2%
2022170.811.91.2119%4.8%
2021140.911.21.9027%5.5%
2020101.118.01.7048%7.4%
2019130.35.80.8020%2.6%
2018160.11.10.209%0.5%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4