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Brayden Willis

San Francisco 49ers · Tight endTE3

Over 6 games last season Brayden Willis averaged 0.0 receptions and 0 yards on 3% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.1
Receiving yards
0
Anytime TD
11%

What a realistic week looks like

91%012345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 0 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.1 projected
26 wk3ARI4%0.0%00000.1 -0.1
26 wk2MIA25%0.0%0000—
25 wk17CHI1%0.0%0000—
25 wk6TB1%0.0%0000—
25 wk5LA2%0.0%0000—
25 wk4JAX3%0.0%0000—
25 wk3ARI2%0.0%0000—
25 wk2NO8%2.6%1000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 7 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 70%
5+ receptions0 of 70%
7+ receptions0 of 70%
50+ receiving yards0 of 70%
75+ receiving yards0 of 70%
100+ receiving yards0 of 70%
Scored a touchdown0 of 70%

Career by season

Brayden Willis: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.00.00.0014%0.0%
202560.00.00.203%0.4%
202490.00.00.205%0.5%
2023100.00.00.009%0.0%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4