Kaelon Black has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.6
Receiving yards
3
Rush attempts
8.6
Rushing yards
37
Anytime TD
14%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.6 projected
26 wk3
ARI
15%
3.8%
1
0
0
4
17
0
0.7 -0.7
26 wk2
MIA
33%
0.0%
0
0
0
7
25
0
—
26 wk1
LA
43%
2.9%
1
1
5
14
65
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Career by season
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
Carries/gm
Rush yds/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
0.3
1.7
0.7
8.3
35.7
0
30%
2.3%
1 season of usage, 2026–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016