Over 19 games last season Luke Farrell averaged 0.6 receptions and 5 yards on 36% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.8
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
9%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk3
ARI
33%
3.8%
1
0
0
0
1.1 -1.1
26 wk2
MIA
54%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
LA
71%
5.9%
2
2
19
0
—
25 wk20
SEA
57%
7.4%
2
1
1
0
—
25 wk19
PHI
32%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
SEA
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
CHI
38%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
IND
41%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
TEN
24%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
CLE
21%
4.3%
1
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 21
10%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
0.7
6.3
1.0
0
53%
3.2%
2025
19
0.6
4.5
0.9
2
36%
2.8%
2024
17
0.7
3.9
1.0
0
38%
3.2%
2023
17
0.8
9.1
0.9
0
35%
2.6%
2022
18
0.2
2.2
0.2
0
8%
0.8%
2021
15
0.5
3.7
0.7
0
29%
2.3%
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016