Slate Stats › NFL › Players

CS

Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos · Wide receiverWR2

Over 19 games last season Courtland Sutton averaged 4.3 receptions and 57 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.0
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
46
Anytime TD
19%
red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

4%010%116%218%316%413%59%66%74%82%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————4.0 projected
26 wk3LA87%22.6%734603.8 -0.8
26 wk2JAX73%13.8%43250—
26 wk1KC76%18.5%52110—
25 wk21NE93%18.5%53171—
25 wk20BUF85%21.4%94530—
25 wk18LAC78%8.7%2150—
25 wk17KC82%27.0%104400—
25 wk16JAX94%26.1%126861—
25 wk15GB88%31.2%1071131—
25 wk14LV65%27.8%106620—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions16 of 2176%
5+ receptions9 of 2143%
7+ receptions2 of 2110%
50+ receiving yards12 of 2157%
75+ receiving yards6 of 2129%
100+ receiving yards2 of 2110%
Scored a touchdown8 of 2138%

Career by season

Courtland Sutton: snap share and target share by season020406080100201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.727.35.3079%18.3%
2025194.357.27.3886%21.0%
2024184.864.28.0886%25.2%
2023163.748.25.61078%20.6%
2022154.355.37.3288%22.9%
2021173.445.65.8285%18.2%
202013.066.06.0040%15.8%
2019164.569.57.8692%27.1%
2018162.644.05.2476%15.9%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Courtland Sutton sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DEN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4