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Denver Broncos
This is a committee. Jaylen Waddle holds 22.7% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 257 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | 70% | 22.7% | 3.5 | 56 | who benefits |
| Courtland Sutton WR2 | 79% | 18.3% | 4.0 | 46 | who benefits |
| Marvin Mims Jr. WR depth | 18% | 11.2% | 1.6 | 5 | — |
| Pat Bryant WR3 | 65% | 10.7% | 2.4 | 27 | — |
| Troy Franklin WR depth | 24% | 4.6% | 1.9 | 20 | — |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR depth | 5% | 3.4% | 0.2 | 9 | — |
| Kolbe Katsis WR depth | 0% | 0.0% | 0.9 | 1 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram TE1 | 58% | 9.5% | 2.1 | 22 | who benefits |
| Nate Adkins TE2 | 32% | 5.6% | 1.1 | 13 | who benefits |
| Adam Trautman TE3 | 47% | 3.7% | 1.1 | 11 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey RB3 | 44% | 18.7% | 3.4 | 28 | — |
| Tyler Badie RB depth | 22% | 6.8% | 1.6 | 14 | — |
| Jonah Coleman RB2 | 23% | 5.2% | 0.0 | — | who benefits |
| J.K. Dobbins RB1 | 42% | 2.2% | 1.1 | 6 | who benefits |
The ground game
Projected for 14 carries and 49 rushing yards, with J.K. Dobbins taking 100% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins RB | 14.4 | 49 | 3.41 | 22% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.