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Denver Broncos

This is a committee. Jaylen Waddle holds 22.7% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 257 receiving yards in week 4.

Who owns the targets

Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.

23%19%18%11%11%41%Jaylen WaddleRJ HarveyCourtland SuttonMarvin Mims Jr.Pat BryantEveryone else

Receivers

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Jaylen Waddle WR170%22.7%3.556who benefits
Courtland Sutton WR279%18.3%4.046who benefits
Marvin Mims Jr. WR depth18%11.2%1.65—
Pat Bryant WR365%10.7%2.427—
Troy Franklin WR depth24%4.6%1.920—
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR depth5%3.4%0.29—
Kolbe Katsis WR depth0%0.0%0.91—

Tight ends

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Evan Engram TE158%9.5%2.122who benefits
Nate Adkins TE232%5.6%1.113who benefits
Adam Trautman TE347%3.7%1.111—

Backs

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
RJ Harvey RB344%18.7%3.428—
Tyler Badie RB depth22%6.8%1.614—
Jonah Coleman RB223%5.2%0.0—who benefits
J.K. Dobbins RB142%2.2%1.16who benefits

The ground game

Projected for 14 carries and 49 rushing yards, with J.K. Dobbins taking 100% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.

PlayerCarriesRush ydsYds/carryAnytime TD
J.K. Dobbins RB14.4493.4122%
14J.K. Dobbins

Whose role has changed since last season

Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.

Denver Broncos snap share changePat Bryant+21.843→65%Evan Engram+16.442→58%Courtland Sutton-7.186→79%Jaylen Waddle-8.078→70%J.K. Dobbins-9.151→42%Adam Trautman-9.757→47%Marvin Mims Jr.-22.240→18%Troy Franklin-33.357→24%Lil'Jordan Humphrey-47.152→5%points of snap share

Ranked by trailing target share, tie-broken on snap share · concentration measured as a Herfindahl index over the tracked room · projections as-of-week with no lookahead