Adam Trautman

Denver Broncos · Tight endTE3

Over 19 games last season Adam Trautman averaged 1.1 receptions and 10 yards on 57% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

0.0 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

11%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	LA	40%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1.2 -1.2
26 wk2	JAX	65%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	KC	37%	11.1%	3	2	10	0	—
25 wk21	NE	53%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	BUF	56%	4.8%	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	LAC	58%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	KC	72%	5.4%	2	2	24	0	—
25 wk16	JAX	58%	6.5%	3	2	14	0	—
25 wk15	GB	62%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	LV	74%	5.6%	2	2	17	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 21	10%
5+ receptions	0 of 21	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 21	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 21	5%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	3.3	1.0	0	47%	3.7%
2025	19	1.1	10.3	1.3	1	57%	3.5%
2024	18	0.8	10.6	1.3	2	50%	4.0%
2023	17	1.3	12.0	2.1	3	71%	7.2%
2022	15	1.2	13.8	1.5	1	57%	5.4%
2021	13	2.1	20.2	3.3	2	75%	10.8%
2020	17	0.9	10.3	1.1	1	39%	3.6%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4