Over 11 games last season Nate Adkins averaged 0.6 receptions and 4 yards on 33% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.1
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Anytime TD
24%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.1 projected
26 wk3
LA
34%
6.5%
2
1
8
0
0
1
1.0 -0.0
26 wk2
JAX
37%
10.3%
3
3
32
1
6
1
—
26 wk1
KC
25%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
NE
28%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
BUF
42%
2.4%
1
1
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
LAC
39%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
JAX
11%
2.2%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
GB
37%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk8
DAL
25%
3.7%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk7
NYG
32%
6.1%
3
2
20
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
1 of 13
8%
5+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 13
15%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.3
13.3
1.7
2
32%
5.6%
2025
11
0.6
4.5
1.1
1
33%
2.9%
2024
18
0.8
6.4
0.8
3
37%
2.7%
2023
10
0.4
2.2
0.5
0
10%
1.8%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016