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JW

Jaylen Waddle

Denver Broncos · Wide receiverWR1

Over 16 games last season Jaylen Waddle averaged 4.0 receptions and 57 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.5
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
56
Anytime TD
21%
third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

6%014%118%219%315%411%57%64%73%8910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.5 projected
26 wk3LA73%22.6%721011403.7 -1.7
26 wk2JAX61%34.5%108138000—
26 wk1KC75%11.1%312000—
25 wk17TB25%4.5%100170—
25 wk16CIN71%31.0%9572000—
25 wk15PIT84%15.4%4226000—
25 wk14NYJ78%33.3%75501211—
25 wk13NO92%30.0%6340000—
25 wk11WAS84%35.0%7352000—
25 wk10BUF83%33.3%7584001—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions14 of 1878%
5+ receptions10 of 1856%
7+ receptions1 of 186%
50+ receiving yards10 of 1856%
75+ receiving yards6 of 1833%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1811%
Scored a touchdown6 of 1833%

Career by season

Jaylen Waddle: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.750.06.7070%22.7%
2025164.056.96.2678%23.3%
2024153.949.65.5279%16.3%
2023154.969.77.3467%22.8%
2022184.377.86.9874%20.4%
2021166.563.48.8783%24.9%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jaylen Waddle sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DEN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4