Evan Engram

Denver Broncos · Tight endTE1

Over 18 games last season Evan Engram averaged 2.9 receptions and 27 yards on 42% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.1

0.8 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

19%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.1 projected
26 wk3	LA	60%	6.5%	2	0	0	0	2.6 -2.6
26 wk2	JAX	52%	3.4%	1	1	17	0	—
26 wk1	KC	63%	18.5%	5	4	43	1	—
25 wk21	NE	33%	11.1%	3	2	19	0	—
25 wk20	BUF	47%	7.1%	3	1	7	0	—
25 wk18	LAC	39%	17.4%	4	3	45	0	—
25 wk17	KC	31%	10.8%	4	4	21	0	—
25 wk16	JAX	44%	8.7%	4	2	36	0	—
25 wk15	GB	28%	9.4%	3	1	12	0	—
25 wk14	LV	36%	5.6%	2	2	8	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 20	55%
5+ receptions	3 of 20	15%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 20	10%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	20.0	2.7	1	58%	9.5%
2025	18	2.9	27.1	4.6	1	42%	13.2%
2024	9	5.2	40.6	7.1	1	72%	25.5%
2023	17	6.7	56.6	8.4	4	79%	23.5%
2022	19	4.5	46.8	6.1	5	79%	17.1%
2021	15	3.1	27.2	4.9	3	75%	15.2%
2020	16	3.9	40.9	6.8	2	82%	21.6%
2019	8	5.5	58.4	8.5	3	80%	22.1%
2018	11	4.1	52.5	5.8	3	66%	16.1%
2017	15	4.3	48.1	7.7	6	77%	20.9%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Evan Engram sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DEN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4