RJ Harvey

Denver Broncos · Running backRB3

Over 19 games last season RJ Harvey averaged 2.9 receptions and 22 yards on 44% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.4

0.5 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

28%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.4 projected
26 wk3	LA	36%	22.6%	7	6	41	2	6	0	3.0 +3.0
26 wk1	KC	51%	14.8%	4	4	23	3	18	0	—
25 wk21	NE	53%	22.2%	6	4	22	13	37	0	—
25 wk20	BUF	62%	14.3%	6	5	46	6	20	0	—
25 wk18	LAC	56%	17.4%	4	1	5	15	28	0	—
25 wk17	KC	65%	16.2%	6	5	33	14	43	1	—
25 wk16	JAX	59%	10.9%	5	4	71	7	50	1	—
25 wk15	GB	68%	3.1%	1	0	0	19	65	1	—
25 wk14	LV	68%	16.7%	6	6	25	17	75	1	—
25 wk13	WAS	47%	9.3%	4	3	27	13	35	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	13 of 20	65%
5+ receptions	4 of 20	20%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 20	10%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	9 of 20	45%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	5.0	32.0	5.5	2.5	12.0	0	44%	18.7%
2025	19	2.9	22.3	3.7	8.7	31.4	12	44%	11.1%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4