Marvin Mims Jr.

Denver Broncos · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 17 games last season Marvin Mims Jr. averaged 2.9 receptions and 28 yards on 40% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.6

1.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk1	KC	18%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk21	NE	66%	22.2%	6	4	62	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	BUF	65%	19.0%	8	8	93	0	0	1	—
25 wk18	LAC	32%	13.0%	3	2	10	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	KC	47%	10.8%	4	3	10	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	JAX	32%	6.5%	3	3	26	1	3	0	—
25 wk15	GB	31%	18.8%	6	4	29	1	8	0	—
25 wk14	LV	27%	2.8%	1	1	5	1	2	0	—
25 wk13	WAS	33%	4.7%	2	2	8	1	9	0	—
25 wk11	KC	24%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	2	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 18	44%
5+ receptions	3 of 18	17%
7+ receptions	1 of 18	6%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 18	22%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 18	11%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 18	17%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	18%	0.0%
2025	17	2.9	28.1	3.8	3	40%	11.2%
2024	18	2.3	28.6	3.1	6	29%	10.0%
2023	16	1.4	23.6	2.1	1	38%	7.2%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4