J.K. Dobbins

Denver Broncos · Running backRB1

Over 10 games last season J.K. Dobbins averaged 1.1 receptions and 4 yards on 51% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

0.0 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

14.4

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

22%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	LA	49%	6.5%	2	1	4	17	49	0	0.9 +0.1
26 wk2	JAX	34%	0.0%	0	0	0	10	36	0	—
26 wk1	KC	43%	0.0%	0	0	0	8	36	0	—
25 wk10	LV	52%	3.7%	1	1	7	18	77	0	—
25 wk9	HOU	46%	2.9%	1	1	-2	15	61	0	—
25 wk8	DAL	52%	7.4%	2	2	10	15	111	0	—
25 wk7	NYG	49%	2.0%	1	1	-1	14	81	0	—
25 wk6	NYJ	50%	3.8%	1	0	0	14	40	0	—
25 wk5	PHI	53%	2.8%	1	1	5	20	79	1	—
25 wk4	CIN	44%	2.4%	1	1	4	16	101	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 12	33%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	1.3	0.7	11.7	40.3	0	42%	2.2%
2025	10	1.1	3.7	1.4	15.3	77.2	4	51%	4.6%
2024	14	2.3	10.9	2.8	14.6	66.5	9	63%	10.1%
2023	1	2.0	15.0	3.0	8.0	22.0	1	47%	14.3%
2022	9	1.2	9.4	1.4	11.7	64.7	4	43%	5.5%
2020	17	1.3	9.7	1.8	9.0	52.4	10	47%	6.4%

6 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If J.K. Dobbins sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DEN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4