Tyler Badie

Denver Broncos · Running backRB depth

Over 18 games last season Tyler Badie averaged 1.1 receptions and 8 yards on 18% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.6

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

16%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk3	LA	18%	3.2%	1	1	12	1	2	0	1.6 -0.6
26 wk2	JAX	26%	10.3%	3	2	28	1	1	0	—
25 wk21	NE	28%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	4	0	—
25 wk20	BUF	19%	4.8%	2	1	7	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	LAC	15%	8.7%	2	2	28	2	-2	0	—
25 wk17	KC	11%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	JAX	23%	6.5%	3	1	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	GB	10%	3.1%	1	1	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	LV	16%	2.8%	1	1	5	4	16	0	—
25 wk13	WAS	26%	11.6%	5	3	18	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
5+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 19	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	1.5	20.0	2.0	1.0	1.5	0	22%	6.8%
2025	18	1.1	8.2	1.8	0.5	1.5	0	18%	5.0%
2024	4	0.8	-0.5	0.8	3.2	23.5	0	10%	2.8%
2022	1	1.0	24.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	1	14%	4.5%

4 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4