Pat Bryant

Denver Broncos · Wide receiverWR3

Over 17 games last season Pat Bryant averaged 2.1 receptions and 24 yards on 43% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.4

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

23%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4 projected
26 wk3	LA	70%	6.5%	2	2	44	0	0	1	2.5 -0.5
26 wk2	JAX	66%	3.4%	1	0	0	1	16	0	—
26 wk1	KC	59%	22.2%	6	4	42	0	0	0	—
25 wk21	NE	16%	3.7%	1	1	2	1	1	0	—
25 wk20	BUF	4%	7.1%	3	3	32	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	LAC	66%	21.7%	5	4	31	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	JAX	64%	17.4%	8	5	42	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	LV	47%	11.1%	4	4	32	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	WAS	70%	16.3%	7	3	42	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	KC	56%	16.7%	6	5	82	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 19	37%
5+ receptions	2 of 19	11%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 19	5%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.0	28.7	3.0	1	65%	10.7%
2025	17	2.1	24.2	3.1	1	43%	9.0%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Denver Broncos roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4