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Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Bijan Robinson averaged 4.6 receptions and 48 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.9
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
47
Rush attempts
17.9
Rushing yards
94
Anytime TD
50%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

4%011%116%218%316%413%59%66%73%82%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.9 projected
26 wk3GB72%8.7%22192919424.2 -2.2
26 wk2CAR51%12.9%43916720—
26 wk1PIT77%52.6%1089021831—
25 wk18NO84%10.0%331015330—
25 wk17LA79%40.0%8534221952—
25 wk16ARI70%32.4%1179216761—
25 wk15TB90%26.8%1188219931—
25 wk14SEA67%7.1%22820860—
25 wk13NYJ87%22.6%7551231421—
25 wk12NO66%10.0%223714700—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions16 of 1984%
5+ receptions10 of 1953%
7+ receptions4 of 1921%
50+ receiving yards9 of 1947%
75+ receiving yards5 of 1926%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
Scored a touchdown10 of 1953%

Career by season

Bijan Robinson: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.339.35.322.0116.3367%24.7%
2025174.648.26.116.986.91178%19.8%
2024173.625.44.217.985.61575%14.1%
2023173.428.65.112.657.4868%17.3%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Bijan Robinson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ATL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4