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Atlanta Falcons
This is a top-heavy committee. Drake London holds 26.9% of the targets, and the 11 tracked pass-catchers project for 19 receptions and 233 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London WR1 | 84% | 26.9% | 4.9 | 71 | who benefits |
| Jahan Dotson WR2 | 68% | 13.9% | 1.9 | 30 | who benefits |
| Olamide Zaccheaus WR3 | 36% | 7.9% | 1.7 | 14 | — |
| Zachariah Branch WR depth | 23% | 5.0% | 0.9 | 11 | — |
| Chris Blair WR depth | 28% | 3.2% | 0.6 | 10 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts TE1 | 53% | 7.9% | 2.2 | 22 | who benefits |
| Austin Hooper TE2 | 30% | 7.2% | 0.8 | 15 | who benefits |
| Charlie Woerner TE3 | 57% | 1.1% | 0.5 | 7 | — |
| Nick Muse TE depth | 17% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 1 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB1 | 67% | 24.7% | 3.9 | 47 | who benefits |
| Brian Robinson RB2 | 33% | 2.2% | 1.0 | 5 | who benefits |
The ground game
Projected for 27 carries and 138 rushing yards, with Bijan Robinson taking 66% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB | 17.9 | 94 | 5.27 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson RB | 9.1 | 44 | 4.82 | 16% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.