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Brian Robinson

Atlanta Falcons · Running backRB2

Over 19 games last season Brian Robinson averaged 0.5 receptions and 1 yards on 17% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.0
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
5
Rush attempts
9.1
Rushing yards
44
Anytime TD
16%
third-down role (+0.05)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

42%030%116%27%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.0 projected
26 wk3GB27%0.0%000105010.8 -0.8
26 wk2CAR48%6.5%221611510—
26 wk1PIT25%0.0%0009310—
25 wk20SEA25%3.7%113340—
25 wk19PHI12%0.0%000000—
25 wk18SEA14%0.0%000290—
25 wk17CHI15%3.0%1164220—
25 wk16IND15%3.0%1005200—
25 wk15TEN16%0.0%0009210—
25 wk13CLE21%0.0%0008260—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 215%
5+ receptions0 of 210%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards0 of 210%
75+ receiving yards0 of 210%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown2 of 2110%

Career by season

Brian Robinson: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.75.30.710.044.0133%2.2%
2025190.51.50.75.021.3217%2.1%
2024171.410.61.813.154.61052%5.8%
2023152.424.52.911.948.9949%7.9%
2022120.85.01.017.166.4342%3.6%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Brian Robinson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ATL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4