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Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Kyle Pitts averaged 5.2 receptions and 55 yards on 88% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.2
3.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
22
Anytime TD
10%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

16%025%123%216%310%45%53%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.2 projected
26 wk3GB59%8.7%21502.5 -1.5
26 wk2CAR38%9.7%31150—
26 wk1PIT63%5.3%1000—
25 wk18NO92%30.0%96580—
25 wk17LA92%15.0%32160—
25 wk16ARI87%26.5%97571—
25 wk15TB96%29.3%12111663—
25 wk14SEA92%35.7%106900—
25 wk13NYJ91%25.8%87820—
25 wk12NO95%25.0%52250—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions13 of 1968%
5+ receptions9 of 1947%
7+ receptions6 of 1932%
50+ receiving yards9 of 1947%
75+ receiving yards3 of 1916%
100+ receiving yards1 of 195%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1916%

Career by season

Kyle Pitts: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.76.72.0053%7.9%
2025175.254.66.9588%22.7%
2024172.835.44.4462%13.9%
2023173.139.25.3364%18.0%
2022102.835.65.9272%27.9%
2021174.060.46.5174%20.3%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kyle Pitts sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ATL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4