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Drake London

Atlanta Falcons · Wide receiverWR1

Over 12 games last season Drake London averaged 5.7 receptions and 77 yards on 91% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.9
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
71
Anytime TD
21%

What a realistic week looks like

2%06%111%215%316%415%512%69%76%84%92%10111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————4.9 projected
26 wk3GB93%43.5%1091940004.7 +4.3
26 wk2CAR62%16.1%54511-20—
26 wk1PIT98%21.1%4229160—
25 wk18NO94%26.7%8478001—
25 wk17LA98%10.0%214000—
25 wk16ARI69%23.5%8327000—
25 wk11CAR92%31.0%97119000—
25 wk10IND98%32.0%86104001—
25 wk9NE98%41.2%149118003—
25 wk7SF98%27.8%10442000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions12 of 1486%
5+ receptions7 of 1450%
7+ receptions5 of 1436%
50+ receiving yards9 of 1464%
75+ receiving yards6 of 1443%
100+ receiving yards5 of 1436%
Scored a touchdown5 of 1436%

Career by season

Drake London: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far35.091.36.3084%26.9%
2025125.776.69.3791%29.7%
2024175.974.89.3990%28.2%
2023164.356.66.9281%22.8%
2022174.250.96.9478%28.9%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Drake London sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ATL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4