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Austin Hooper

Atlanta Falcons · Tight endTE2

Over 20 games last season Austin Hooper averaged 1.2 receptions and 14 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.8
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
22%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

50%029%113%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.8 projected
26 wk3GB23%8.7%221110.7 +1.3
26 wk2CAR43%12.9%42200—
26 wk1PIT23%0.0%0000—
25 wk22SEA44%7.3%32100—
25 wk21DEN41%0.0%0000—
25 wk20HOU34%7.7%21140—
25 wk19LAC59%7.4%2000—
25 wk18MIA41%5.0%1150—
25 wk17NYJ41%8.0%22111—
25 wk16BAL31%9.5%42340—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 229%
5+ receptions0 of 220%
7+ receptions0 of 220%
50+ receiving yards0 of 220%
75+ receiving yards0 of 220%
100+ receiving yards0 of 220%
Scored a touchdown2 of 229%

Career by season

Austin Hooper: snap share and target share by season02040608010020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.310.32.0130%7.2%
2025201.214.31.6249%5.7%
2024172.628.03.5353%12.2%
2023171.513.81.8052%6.4%
2022172.426.13.5251%13.9%
2021162.421.63.8369%13.0%
2020153.733.15.6578%18.8%
2019135.860.57.5679%18.5%
2018164.441.25.5476%14.3%
2017182.930.23.9377%12.3%
2016171.519.82.1448%6.9%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Austin Hooper sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ATL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4