Olamide Zaccheaus

Atlanta Falcons · Wide receiverWR3

Over 18 games last season Olamide Zaccheaus averaged 2.3 receptions and 18 yards on 50% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.7

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

13%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7 projected
26 wk3	GB	34%	8.7%	2	2	9	0	1.5 +0.5
26 wk2	CAR	43%	9.7%	3	1	3	0	—
26 wk1	PIT	30%	5.3%	1	1	5	0	—
25 wk20	LA	20%	4.8%	2	1	9	0	—
25 wk19	GB	27%	4.3%	2	1	8	1	—
25 wk18	DET	11%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	GB	86%	17.2%	5	2	33	0	—
25 wk15	CLE	82%	11.1%	3	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	GB	79%	10.7%	3	2	7	1	—
25 wk13	PHI	28%	9.4%	3	2	19	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	5 of 20	25%
5+ receptions	3 of 20	15%
7+ receptions	1 of 20	5%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 20	15%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	5.7	2.0	0	36%	7.9%
2025	18	2.3	18.3	3.8	3	50%	11.9%
2024	20	2.6	27.6	3.7	3	45%	12.0%
2023	18	0.6	9.4	1.2	2	42%	3.8%
2022	17	2.4	31.4	3.6	3	70%	16.0%
2021	17	1.8	23.9	3.1	3	58%	9.9%
2020	11	1.8	24.9	2.9	1	40%	7.9%
2019	10	0.3	11.5	0.5	1	12%	1.3%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4