Chris Blair has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.6
Receiving yards
10
Anytime TD
13%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.6 projected
26 wk3
GB
18%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.7 -0.7
26 wk2
CAR
49%
9.7%
3
1
6
0
—
26 wk1
PIT
17%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
LA
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
ARI
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
TB
4%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 5 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 5
0%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
0.3
2.0
1.0
0
28%
3.2%
2025
3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
8%
0.0%
2024
3
0.3
5.7
0.7
0
13%
2.2%
2023
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
15%
0.0%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016