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JD

Jahan Dotson

Atlanta Falcons · Wide receiverWR2

Over 18 games last season Jahan Dotson averaged 1.0 receptions and 15 yards on 57% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.9
0.9 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
30
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

21%028%122%214%38%44%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.9 projected
26 wk3GB66%13.0%311101.8 -0.8
26 wk2CAR75%12.9%42110—
26 wk1PIT63%15.8%31190—
25 wk19SF52%2.9%1000—
25 wk18WAS94%23.5%83400—
25 wk17BUF48%4.5%1000—
25 wk16WAS66%10.3%33130—
25 wk15LV54%0.0%0000—
25 wk14LAC49%7.9%3130—
25 wk13CHI59%10.0%31120—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 2015%
5+ receptions0 of 200%
7+ receptions0 of 200%
50+ receiving yards1 of 205%
75+ receiving yards0 of 200%
100+ receiving yards0 of 200%
Scored a touchdown1 of 205%

Career by season

Jahan Dotson: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.313.73.3068%13.9%
2025181.014.62.1157%7.1%
2024211.012.81.8158%6.8%
2023172.930.54.9483%13.6%
2022122.943.65.1775%15.7%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jahan Dotson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ATL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Atlanta Falcons roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4