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Breece Hall

New York Jets · Running backRB1

Over 16 games last season Breece Hall averaged 2.2 receptions and 22 yards on 64% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.6
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
20
Rush attempts
15.2
Rushing yards
63
Anytime TD
31%

What a realistic week looks like

12%021%122%218%312%47%54%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.6 projected
26 wk3DET48%8.3%3323133202.8 +0.2
26 wk2GB65%13.9%556316290—
26 wk1TEN58%8.7%2216221021—
25 wk17NE48%9.4%3218141111—
25 wk16NO64%8.8%32916540—
25 wk15JAX54%6.2%221412230—
25 wk14MIA76%3.1%10014430—
25 wk13ATL88%6.5%22819681—
25 wk12BAL71%14.8%447516440—
25 wk11NE72%7.7%22614580—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions5 of 1828%
5+ receptions2 of 1811%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards2 of 1811%
75+ receiving yards1 of 186%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown5 of 1828%

Career by season

Breece Hall: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.334.03.317.054.3157%10.3%
2025162.221.93.015.266.6564%10.6%
2024163.630.24.813.154.8872%14.1%
2023174.534.85.613.158.5959%16.1%
202272.731.14.411.466.1549%11.5%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Breece Hall sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYJ room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4