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AJ

Aaron Jones

Minnesota Vikings · Running backRB1

Over 12 games last season Aaron Jones averaged 2.3 receptions and 17 yards on 55% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.5
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
21
Rush attempts
14.8
Rushing yards
71
Anytime TD
33%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

13%022%122%217%311%47%54%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.5 projected
26 wk3TB80%24.0%6534175801.7 +3.3
26 wk2CHI81%0.0%000231050—
26 wk1GB46%4.3%10012401—
25 wk17DET65%28.6%431018531—
25 wk16NYG64%13.0%32821850—
25 wk15DAL58%12.5%333112340—
25 wk14WAS45%4.3%10014760—
25 wk13SEA37%13.8%4422630—
25 wk12GB66%22.2%43169410—
25 wk11CHI67%18.8%631116700—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 1450%
5+ receptions0 of 140%
7+ receptions0 of 140%
50+ receiving yards0 of 140%
75+ receiving yards0 of 140%
100+ receiving yards0 of 140%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1429%

Career by season

Aaron Jones: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.711.32.317.367.7169%9.4%
2025122.316.63.411.045.7355%14.1%
2024183.023.33.814.965.9764%12.3%
2023132.619.53.813.967.8653%12.2%
2022173.523.24.212.565.9758%13.6%
2021163.832.54.711.452.51060%14.7%
2020163.223.54.413.876.91259%14.1%
2019183.128.14.214.966.82362%12.3%
2018122.217.22.911.160.7950%8.9%
2017100.92.21.88.144.8439%5.6%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Aaron Jones sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4