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Minnesota Vikings
This is a top-heavy committee. Justin Jefferson holds 26.2% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 20 receptions and 252 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | 68% | 26.2% | 4.2 | 67 | who benefits |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | 90% | 23.7% | 3.2 | 59 | who benefits |
| Jauan Jennings WR3 | 64% | 6.2% | 2.0 | 24 | — |
| Tai Felton WR depth | 30% | 4.0% | 0.4 | 8 | — |
| Myles Price WR depth | 21% | 1.8% | 0.4 | 4 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson TE1 | 73% | 19.6% | 3.3 | 39 | who benefits |
| Josh Oliver TE2 | 55% | 7.6% | 1.1 | 18 | who benefits |
| Gavin Bartholomew TE3 | 7% | 0.0% | 0.6 | -0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones RB1 | 69% | 9.4% | 2.5 | 21 | who benefits |
| Jordan Mason RB2 | 45% | 3.5% | 0.0 | — | — |
| DeeJay Dallas RB depth | 13% | 3.2% | 1.1 | 6 | — |
| Demond Claiborne RB3 | 4% | 2.6% | 0.9 | 2 | — |
| Max Bredeson RB depth | 29% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 4 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 15 carries and 71 rushing yards, with Aaron Jones taking 100% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones RB | 14.8 | 71 | 4.83 | 33% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.