DeeJay Dallas

Minnesota Vikings · Running backRB depth

DeeJay Dallas has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

16%

third-down role (+0.12)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	TB	15%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.8 -0.8
26 wk2	CHI	15%	5.3%	1	1	12	2	8	0	—
26 wk1	GB	9%	4.3%	1	1	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	TEN	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	IND	14%	2.7%	1	0	0	2	21	0	—
25 wk16	DEN	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk6	DAL	6%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	0	0	—
25 wk5	MIA	17%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 7 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 7	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 7	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 7	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 7	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 7	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 7	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 7	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	4.3	0.7	1.0	3.3	0	13%	3.2%
2025	5	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	4.2	0	12%	0.5%
2024	16	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.6	3.1	1	13%	0.5%
2023	17	0.4	1.5	0.5	0.6	2.1	0	14%	1.7%
2022	16	1.1	7.9	1.2	2.6	12.4	0	21%	3.6%
2021	17	1.2	7.8	1.4	1.9	8.1	2	21%	4.7%
2020	9	1.9	12.3	2.2	3.8	12.0	3	27%	6.1%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4