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JJ

Justin Jefferson

Minnesota Vikings · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Justin Jefferson averaged 4.9 receptions and 62 yards on 94% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.2
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
67
Anytime TD
37%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

3%09%115%217%316%413%510%67%74%83%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————4.2 projected
26 wk3TB12%8.0%22320005.0 -3.0
26 wk2CHI100%31.6%6355000—
26 wk1GB92%39.1%9892002—
25 wk18GB76%36.7%118101130—
25 wk17DET98%35.7%5430000—
25 wk16NYG95%34.8%8685000—
25 wk15DAL96%33.3%8222000—
25 wk14WAS80%17.4%4211000—
25 wk13SEA96%20.7%624000—
25 wk12GB100%33.3%6448000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions16 of 1984%
5+ receptions10 of 1953%
7+ receptions5 of 1926%
50+ receiving yards11 of 1958%
75+ receiving yards8 of 1942%
100+ receiving yards3 of 1916%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1916%

Career by season

Justin Jefferson: snap share and target share by season0204060801002020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.359.75.7268%26.2%
2025174.961.68.3294%30.7%
2024186.088.49.01093%29.5%
2023106.8107.410.0587%28.1%
2022187.5103.110.7992%28.0%
2021176.495.19.81089%29.4%
2020165.587.57.8780%25.3%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Justin Jefferson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4