T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings · Tight endTE1

Over 15 games last season T.J. Hockenson averaged 3.4 receptions and 29 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.3

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

24%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.3 projected
26 wk3	TB	85%	16.0%	4	2	11	0	0	0	3.5 -1.5
26 wk2	CHI	69%	21.1%	4	3	29	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	GB	66%	21.7%	5	4	36	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	NYG	75%	4.3%	1	1	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	DAL	80%	20.8%	5	4	66	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	WAS	56%	13.0%	3	2	12	0	0	1	—
25 wk13	SEA	79%	20.7%	6	6	59	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	GB	68%	22.2%	4	4	19	1	0	0	—
25 wk11	CHI	80%	18.8%	6	3	39	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	BAL	91%	4.9%	2	2	8	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 17	65%
5+ receptions	4 of 17	24%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 17	12%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 17	24%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.0	25.3	4.3	1	73%	19.6%
2025	15	3.4	29.2	4.4	3	78%	15.9%
2024	11	4.2	47.2	6.1	1	61%	17.6%
2023	15	6.3	64.0	8.5	5	79%	24.0%
2022	18	5.3	57.9	7.8	6	85%	20.6%
2021	12	5.1	48.6	7.0	4	84%	20.5%
2020	16	4.2	45.2	6.3	6	73%	17.8%
2019	12	2.7	30.6	4.9	2	63%	13.6%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If T.J. Hockenson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4