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JJ

Jauan Jennings

Minnesota Vikings · Wide receiverWR3

Over 17 games last season Jauan Jennings averaged 3.4 receptions and 42 yards on 83% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.0
1.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
24
Anytime TD
7%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

19%026%122%215%39%45%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.0 projected
26 wk3TB80%8.0%21101.6 -0.6
26 wk1GB48%4.3%1000—
25 wk20SEA78%18.5%52230—
25 wk19PHI97%10.0%31450—
25 wk18SEA88%22.2%64350—
25 wk17CHI90%12.1%42421—
25 wk16IND82%18.2%65711—
25 wk15TEN81%17.9%53372—
25 wk13CLE81%26.1%64391—
25 wk12CAR90%21.9%75411—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions11 of 1861%
5+ receptions4 of 1822%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards4 of 1822%
75+ receiving yards1 of 186%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown8 of 1844%

Career by season

Jauan Jennings: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.50.51.5064%6.2%
2025173.441.85.8983%19.3%
2024155.165.07.5674%25.2%
2023161.823.52.9247%9.9%
2022192.125.43.3147%11.5%
2021191.617.12.5536%9.1%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4