Josh Oliver

Minnesota Vikings · Tight endTE2

Over 15 games last season Josh Oliver averaged 1.0 receptions and 11 yards on 46% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

13%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	TB	41%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1.9 -1.9
26 wk2	CHI	60%	5.3%	1	1	24	0	—
26 wk1	GB	65%	17.4%	4	2	22	0	—
25 wk18	GB	46%	6.7%	2	2	29	0	—
25 wk17	DET	93%	14.3%	2	1	8	0	—
25 wk16	NYG	52%	13.0%	3	2	19	0	—
25 wk15	DAL	62%	4.2%	1	1	18	0	—
25 wk14	WAS	62%	8.7%	2	2	24	2	—
25 wk13	SEA	42%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	GB	55%	5.6%	1	1	4	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 17	18%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.0	15.3	1.7	0	55%	7.6%
2025	15	1.0	10.7	1.3	4	46%	5.2%
2024	16	1.4	16.4	1.8	3	54%	5.9%
2023	17	1.3	12.5	1.6	2	42%	4.4%
2022	18	0.9	9.7	1.5	2	49%	5.9%
2021	13	0.7	5.1	1.2	0	16%	3.3%
2019	4	0.8	3.8	1.5	0	42%	3.7%

7 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Josh Oliver sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4