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Jordan Addison

Minnesota Vikings · Wide receiverWR2

Over 14 games last season Jordan Addison averaged 3.0 receptions and 44 yards on 85% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.2
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
59
Anytime TD
23%

What a realistic week looks like

7%016%120%219%315%410%56%64%72%8910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.2 projected
26 wk3TB98%36.0%95900012.7 +2.3
26 wk2CHI88%26.3%5221000—
26 wk1GB83%8.7%200000—
25 wk18GB93%10.0%318000—
25 wk17DET78%7.1%1001651—
25 wk16NYG67%13.0%3226000—
25 wk15DAL64%8.3%2266000—
25 wk14WAS67%30.4%7462000—
25 wk13SEA92%34.5%10536000—
25 wk12GB98%5.6%100000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 1644%
5+ receptions3 of 1619%
7+ receptions1 of 166%
50+ receiving yards4 of 1625%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1612%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1612%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1625%

Career by season

Jordan Addison: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.337.05.3190%23.7%
2025143.043.65.6485%18.2%
2024164.156.56.71082%21.1%
2023174.153.66.41081%17.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jordan Addison sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4