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If David Njoku is out, who gets his targets?

The Los Angeles Chargers room absorbs +2.07 receptions, and Hayden Rucci takes the largest single share at +0.72. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if David Njoku sitsHayden Rucci+0.7TE 41% snapsOronde Gadsden…+0.7TE 40% snapsCharlie Kolar+0.5TE 58% snapsLadd McConkey+0.1WR 61% snapsQuentin Johnston+0.1WR 82% snapsTre Harris+0.1WR 72% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Ladd McConkey WR · 61% snaps3.803.87+0.07
Quentin Johnston WR · 82% snaps3.303.37+0.07
Tre Harris WR · 72% snaps2.802.87+0.07
Oronde Gadsden II TE · 40% snaps2.202.88+0.68
David Njoku TE · 36% snaps2.00—OUT
Omarion Hampton RB · 54% snaps1.901.90+0.00
Charlie Kolar TE · 58% snaps1.401.86+0.46
Keaton Mitchell RB · 31% snaps1.101.10+0.00
Hayden Rucci TE · 41% snaps0.601.32+0.72
Kimani Vidal RB · 14% snaps0.600.60+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

David Njoku’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4