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If AJ Barner is out, who gets his targets?
The Seattle Seahawks room absorbs +1.06 receptions, and Elijah Arroyo takes the largest single share at +0.71. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · 81% snaps | 7.00 | 7.07 | +0.07 |
| AJ Barner TE · 86% snaps | 3.20 | — | OUT |
| Cooper Kupp WR · 63% snaps | 2.90 | 2.97 | +0.07 |
| Rashid Shaheed WR · 56% snaps | 2.60 | 2.67 | +0.07 |
| Tory Horton WR · 26% snaps | 1.60 | 1.67 | +0.07 |
| Jadarian Price RB · 37% snaps | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| George Holani RB · 36% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| Emanuel Wilson RB · 28% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| Brady Russell RB · 32% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| Elijah Arroyo TE · 23% snaps | 0.60 | 1.31 | +0.71 |
| Montorie Foster Jr WR · 0% snaps | 0.60 | 0.67 | +0.07 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
AJ Barner’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection