Over 20 games last season AJ Barner averaged 2.9 receptions and 29 yards on 79% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.2 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.2
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
31
Anytime TD
30%
red-zone role (+0.07)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.2 projected
26 wk3
WAS
91%
20.0%
9
5
69
0
0
0
2.7 +2.3
26 wk2
ARI
80%
3.8%
1
1
8
1
1
1
—
26 wk1
NE
88%
8.3%
2
2
13
0
0
0
—
25 wk22
NE
90%
11.1%
4
4
54
0
0
1
—
25 wk21
LA
96%
8.8%
3
2
13
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
SF
79%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
2
0
—
25 wk18
SF
61%
11.5%
3
2
14
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
CAR
79%
11.5%
3
3
43
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
LA
94%
19.4%
6
4
49
1
1
1
—
25 wk15
IND
83%
18.2%
6
3
27
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 22
50%
5+ receptions
2 of 22
9%
7+ receptions
2 of 22
9%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 22
18%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 22
36%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.7
30.0
4.0
1
86%
10.7%
2025
20
2.9
29.3
3.8
8
79%
12.7%
2024
17
1.8
14.4
2.2
4
45%
7.0%
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016