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If Brian Thomas Jr. is out, who gets his targets?
The Jacksonville Jaguars room absorbs +0.95 receptions, and Parker Washington takes the largest single share at +0.24. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington WR · 74% snaps | 4.50 | 4.74 | +0.24 |
| Jakobi Meyers WR · 79% snaps | 4.00 | 4.24 | +0.24 |
| Brenton Strange TE · 76% snaps | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. WR · 42% snaps | 2.70 | — | OUT |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB · 49% snaps | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Ameer Abdullah RB · 10% snaps | 0.90 | 0.90 | +0.00 |
| Josh Cameron WR · 29% snaps | 0.90 | 1.13 | +0.23 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. RB · 12% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Tanner Koziol TE · 5% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Nate Boerkircher TE · 50% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| CJ Williams WR · 18% snaps | 0.60 | 0.84 | +0.24 |
| Quintin Morris TE · 31% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection