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Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars · Wide receiverWR2

Over 15 games last season Brian Thomas Jr. averaged 3.3 receptions and 49 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.7
0.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
41
Anytime TD
16%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

10%020%122%218%313%48%55%62%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.7 projected
26 wk3NE37%3.7%1180003.1 -2.1
26 wk2DEN54%28.6%8340000—
26 wk1CLE35%14.3%3340000—
25 wk19BUF77%6.7%2221001—
25 wk18TEN57%16.1%5349000—
25 wk17IND78%18.9%7439000—
25 wk16DEN73%8.6%3218000—
25 wk15NYJ77%25.0%7466151—
25 wk14IND83%19.4%6387000—
25 wk13TEN75%12.0%3228000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions12 of 1771%
5+ receptions2 of 1712%
7+ receptions1 of 176%
50+ receiving yards6 of 1735%
75+ receiving yards3 of 1718%
100+ receiving yards0 of 170%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1724%

Career by season

Brian Thomas Jr.: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.329.34.0042%15.5%
2025153.348.56.2478%18.5%
2024175.175.47.81079%25.5%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Brian Thomas Jr. sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the JAX room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4