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If Darren Waller is out, who gets his targets?
The Carolina Panthers room absorbs +1.75 receptions, and Tommy Tremble takes the largest single share at +0.84. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker WR · 65% snaps | 4.20 | 4.27 | +0.07 |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · 86% snaps | 4.10 | 4.17 | +0.07 |
| Darren Waller TE · 43% snaps | 2.80 | — | OUT |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · 73% snaps | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
| Tommy Tremble TE · 53% snaps | 2.10 | 2.94 | +0.84 |
| Mitchell Evans TE · 42% snaps | 1.50 | 2.00 | +0.50 |
| Xavier Legette WR · 52% snaps | 1.40 | 1.47 | +0.07 |
| Brycen Tremayne WR · 39% snaps | 1.20 | 1.27 | +0.07 |
| John Metchie III WR · 34% snaps | 1.10 | 1.17 | +0.07 |
| David Moore WR · 6% snaps | 0.80 | 0.86 | +0.06 |
| Jonathon Brooks RB · 24% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| AJ Dillon RB · 11% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Tyus III RB · 0% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Darren Waller’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection