Darren Waller

Carolina Panthers · Tight endTE1

Over 9 games last season Darren Waller averaged 2.7 receptions and 31 yards on 45% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.8

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

28%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.8 projected
26 wk3	CLE	51%	19.0%	8	5	51	0	0	0	2.4 +2.6
26 wk2	ATL	44%	9.4%	3	3	33	0	0	2	—
26 wk1	CHI	35%	5.9%	2	2	28	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	TB	38%	13.6%	3	1	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	CIN	49%	17.2%	5	3	40	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	PIT	54%	30.8%	8	7	66	0	0	2	—
25 wk14	NYJ	37%	14.3%	3	1	13	1	4	0	—
25 wk13	NO	47%	15.0%	3	2	47	0	0	0	—
25 wk7	CLE	28%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk6	LAC	66%	10.0%	3	2	12	0	0	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	5 of 11	45%
5+ receptions	2 of 11	18%
7+ receptions	1 of 11	9%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 11	18%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 11	9%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 11	0%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 11	45%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	37.3	4.3	2	43%	11.4%
2025	9	2.7	31.4	3.8	6	45%	14.6%
2023	12	4.3	46.0	6.2	1	69%	20.6%
2022	9	3.1	43.1	4.8	3	58%	14.0%
2021	12	5.2	61.8	8.8	2	84%	23.3%
2020	16	6.7	74.8	9.1	9	92%	27.8%
2019	16	5.6	71.6	7.3	3	91%	23.8%
2018	4	1.5	18.8	1.5	0	17%	5.0%
2016	12	0.8	7.1	1.4	2	28%	3.7%

9 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Darren Waller sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CAR room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4