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Carolina Panthers
This is a committee. Tetairoa McMillan holds 22.2% of the targets, and the 15 tracked pass-catchers project for 24 receptions and 277 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | 86% | 22.2% | 4.1 | 66 | who benefits |
| Jalen Coker WR2 | 65% | 21.4% | 4.2 | 47 | who benefits |
| Xavier Legette WR3 | 52% | 9.2% | 1.4 | 25 | — |
| John Metchie III WR depth | 34% | 6.0% | 1.1 | 14 | — |
| Brycen Tremayne WR depth | 39% | 4.8% | 1.2 | 17 | — |
| David Moore WR depth | 6% | 4.8% | 0.8 | 14 | — |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. WR depth | 21% | 2.9% | 0.3 | 8 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller TE1 | 43% | 11.4% | 2.8 | 27 | who benefits |
| Tommy Tremble TE2 | 53% | 10.2% | 2.2 | 22 | who benefits |
| Mitchell Evans TE3 | 42% | 5.4% | 1.6 | 14 | — |
| Feleipe Franks TE depth | 6% | 0.0% | 0.2 | -0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard RB1 | 73% | 8.2% | 2.8 | 21 | who benefits |
| Jonathon Brooks RB2 | 24% | 4.5% | 0.0 | — | — |
| AJ Dillon RB3 | 11% | 0.8% | 0.8 | 0 | — |
| Anthony Tyus III RB depth | 0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 19 carries and 86 rushing yards, with Chuba Hubbard taking 74% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard RB | 13.9 | 61 | 4.35 | 44% |
| AJ Dillon RB | 5.0 | 25 | 5.05 | 16% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.